A report by an Iranian Blogger – which claimed Israel used its new Rampage Missile in its recent attack against to avoid the S-300 – is highly unlikely.
(it being used to avoid the S-300 is the unlikelihood)
First, what is the Rampage at all? It is the Supersonic aerial version of the of the EXTRA GPS guided ballistic missile, and with anti Jamming abilities (and part of its Ballistic Missile Corps) and is made jointly by IMI and IAI. It has a a blast, Fragmentation warhead and according to the official marketing page can fit for most modern jets (except the F-35, more on that beneath) has a 10 meter CEP. The official distance is 150 KM, like the Extra, but Boaz Levy – VP of rockets at IAI – said the missiles range is “hundreds of KM” but DIDN’T specify but it makes sense because it is shot from a plane which can be from very high altitudes and from an angle hence at least part of its range can be gained from simple gravity downward trajectory and when you add to that ground-to-ground engine-trajectory range it in ANYCASE has there is little doubt the real range of the Rampage can be in fact hundreds of KM like the IAI VP said (and they are on purposes being vague about it to “always keep your enemies guessing”). There is also a naval version of the EXTRA/Rampage, called Trigon.
We don’t think which ever missile Israel used in it latest attack in Syria was to avoid the S-300 and we talked about extensively in our “Why didn’t Syria use the S-300?” essay. In a nutshell Syria, let alone Russia, has NO intention of using the S-300 against Israel or against anybody else. Why?
First Israel isn’t even attacking Syrian army, installations and etc, only assets/arms belonging to Hezbollah or Iran – and if anything it is “only” violating Syrian airspace, but basically everybody – Russia, Turkey, Kurds and dozens of terror groups – have been violating Syria territory and airspace for 10 years almost and in any case Syria doesn’t exist anymore as a country. But as mentioned, and in any case, Israel isn’t attacking Syrian Military, installations, assets or hurting its war effort in any kind of way so it simply doesn’t bother the Syrians or Russians.
2nd, Israel, from a military standpoint can get over the S-300 , and probably pretty easily (and also detailed in depth in the article). How? It has been training for the past 15 years with the Greek Air Force, at least twice a year, and Greece has the S-300 and according to reports the IAF has trained on S-300 evasion with their system . In addition, S-300 is technology form the 70’s! Technologically – both the world, let alone the IDF and IAF, have advanced since then in their counter AA technologies. But the real reason is Israel is number 1 in the world, along with the US, in electronic warfare and time and again have jammed the best Russian and Chinese radars over Syria and carried out HUNDREDS of raids with only once a plane being downed, because of the pilots error (not the IAF anti-jamming capabilities).
But, if the Syrians shoot the S-300, and whether they hit or miss the attacking planes, they know it is the end of that specific S-300 battery and whom ever is inside for that specific battery which fired. The S-300 maybe able to deal with planes with insufficient protection capabilities or EW, but certainly won’t be able to deal with the IAF or the hundreds of cruise missiles or suicide/Attack drones Israel can fire at it. That is certainly another reason for them NOT to use it.
But the most in depth reason for the Syrians NOT to use it, is it will cause real damage for the Russians if Syria did in fact use it – as I showed above if Syria uses it, than it no doubt will be destroyed immediately – and the LAST thing the Russians need is another Youtube video surfacing of its anti-aircraft system being destroyed by a Harpy, Dahlila, Spike NLOS, nimrod or Popeye Missile. 5% of Russia’s economy are arms exports and that will HUGE damage to their exports and frankly, they had enough with the 2 previous videos of their Pantsir S-1 systems – which can supposibly also intercept cruise missiles – being destroyed by Israeli…cruise missiles (that caused a mockery in social media). Nobody knows how much Damage was done to the Russian arms exports but no doubt it is stain on their image and will raise questions when they try to pitch their systems.
Pantsir S-1 being destryoyed in Syria by Israel – The last thing the Russian arms industry needs now is a video of their S-300 being destroyed.
So why did Russia give Syria the S-300? For Russian domestic PR purposes, as an antidote because of the Syrians downing a Russian jet which caused the death of 15 of their servicemen and real embarrassment for Putin. Aside from partially blaming both the Syrians and the Israelis (except for themselves off course), the Russians built a story – or more like spin if you may, in fact probably with Syria and Israel together, that “because” the Syrians used “Old” technology than the mistake happened, and supposibly with the S-300 it won’t happen and they will be able to “defend themselves” against Israeli attacks, even though all 3 parties involved – Russians, Syrians, Iranians and Israelis – know very well that’s simply not true and if they really used the S-300, it would be ineffective and immediately destroyed.
Hence they gave them the S-300, but are NOT using it.
Than why did this report come to light? That Iranian blogger was probably a mouth piece of both the Russians, Israelis and Syrians – all whom have a vested interest in such a leak. Well, why? The S-300 is quite a while already in Syria yet it was never used despite 5 Israeli attacks since Syria got it, and we already know why, it wasn’t used (and probably not going to either). But in social media and other comment sections questions are already starting to be asked and there is a danger Russia’s bluff can be blown (which can be dangerous for Putin’s in the domestic public opinion arena) – so now they found the perfect excuse – it was a new Israeli missile with a stand off range far out of the S-300’s coverage. Israel? excellent opportunity to promote its new missile – nothing like “Combat Proven” quality standard badge when pitching the missile to potential foreign buyers. Syria? They get some aid from Iran and Assad is partially in bed with them hence he needs an excuse as to why he is not “using” his S-300 to protect them and their assets in Syria.
Israeli FirePower LTD. 