Why is Turkey trying to get the S-400? It doesn’t want the F-35? And why does it “bother” the US and NATO that Turkey has the S-400?
After all, Greece has the S-300 and Greece is part of Nato….The reason? The F-35 / S-400 / Turkey saga is a political tug-a-war geopolitical diplomatic dance with colliding global geopolitical interests that only part of them meets the eye. Turkey, The US, Russia, Greece, Armenia are all involved in this chess game over this Russian made Anti-Aircraft system.
Let it be clear – the Trump administration doesn’t want Erdogan to have such a sophisticate system like the F-35. For far too long, there is unease in Washington and other places towards Turkey under his leadership and his international behavior. They understood he is dangerously unstable person whom turned Turkey into a defacto dictatorship and with real imperialistic ambitions. He routinely behaves in an aggressive way towards other nations and personally threatens them and their leaders. Turkish planes routinely violate Greek airspace, its warships block international gas exploration expeditions off Cyprus, gets into daily fights and threatens Israel, Meddles in other nations internal affairs, Kidnaps Turkish civilians from other sovereign nations and threatens dozens of other nations and leaders, including Trump himself. The Greek and Armenian lobbies have been putting heavy pressure on Washington to block the sale of the F-35 and apparently with success. The Israeli lobby may have also been involved, although very much behind the scenes.
Additionally, personal behavior of Erdogan himself added antagonism and fuel towards the opposition of the sale. Specifically, his personal conduct in Washington (bodyguards attacking Kurdish American citizens at a protest in broad daylight in the middle of Washington DC), arrests of American citizens in Turkey and employees at the American embassy in Istanbul and his repeated demands to extradite to Turkey a cleric living in the US.
But there is an agreement written in stone, and Turkey is a full member of F-35 program. It is not that it is just a member of the program, but it actually produces some of its most critical components. components like the Panoramic cockpit display, missile remote interface unit, landing gear parts, brake system parts and more. So what do you do? Knowing the US government they surely have a legal way out and just need a pretext for it. And they found it – the S-400 (Greece has the S-300 too, is part of NATO, and doesn’t seem to bother anyone in Washington).
Russia also has a clear interest in this and they would give Turkey the S-400 even for free. First, they have a clear geopolitical interest in weakening NATO, their main adversary. NATO has been setting foot in the former Soviet republics of Georgia and the Baltics and even indirectly causing the war in Ukraine. This steps by NATO’S arouse the deepest insecurities in the Russian mindset. Russia also has an economic interest in the cancellation of the supply as it’s SU-57 may fill in the gap. Turkey would even join the project and inject cash into it as Russia itself could only afford 12 such planes for its fledgling fleet.
However, even Russia itself, with all its interests in F-35/S-400 Turkey Crisis needs to be mindful with Turkey. They will probably be giving them the export version of the S-400, minus some of its features. Turkey itself has an extreme stick over Russia, that being the Bosporus straits, which it can close in an instant. Additionally, Russia and Turkey, even though they do business in Syria, they actually have conflicting interests there. Their proxy militias are actually fighting each other. Also, Assad and Erdogan are personal mortal enemies and Erdogan himself cut up a 15% slice of Syria for Himself. Now that 15% are defacto part of Turkey. Occupation anyone?
So Russia is a playing divide and conquer with both Turkey and NATO. On the one hand it’s cutting a wedge inside NATO with this S-400 / F-35 saga. On the other hand it can’t get too deep in bed with Turkey, as they both also have opposing interests in Syria.
But what’s more interesting are Turkey’s motives in this whole saga. Why do they need the S-400 all? Don’t they want the F-35, which congress is about to take from them? The Patriot isn’t good enough? As a reminder, the Patriot actually is COMBAT PROVEN, whilst S-400 isn’t. What we know about the S-400 is just PR from self interest parties and there is no real proof it is as good as they say it is. Additionally, they are making their own Anti-Aircraft system called Hisar (in addition to hundreds of other military projects). Don’t they believe in their engineers?
But most importantly, in addition to the not getting the best aircraft in the world, it’s also actually a huge job loss for Turkey. Turkey makes some of the most pivotal components for the F-35, providing it thousands of jobs. Could anything be more important than that, from a responsible leader of a country? And especially now that the Turkish economy is tanking? Frankly, seems irrational on Erdogans end to go ahead with this. So why is he?
Turkish indigenous AA system, Hisar. Nothing remotely like the S-400 and in any case not operational yet.
First, as mentioned above, Erdogan is dangerous man and his imperialistic ambitions are real and not exaggerations. All the credible research on him shows that. That could certainly be one reason for such irrational decision making on his end. The two countries most threatened by his imperialism are Greece and Cyprus. We all know both countries history with Turkey. However, at least in Greece’s case, it has one of the best air forces in the world (whom regularly train with Israel) and can pose a real for Turkey if it gets belligerent. And it is belligerent, all the time, violating Greek airspace
But it’s not only Greece and Cyprus. His imperialistic ambitions are towards the whole middle east, not only Greece and Cyprus. So getting such a system fits his ambitions. But how does that coincide with turkey supposedly giving up F-35? Probably one of the 2-3 most sophisticated systems in the world? That is again the irrational and even megalomaniac side of Erdogan – he wants, and thinks, he can get it all. Always the boundaries of power, and unaware the whole world doesn’t surround him.
Greek air force – one of the best in the world (Here training with the IAF) – No doubt the S-400 has a reason for Erdogan.
But there is one more reason that slipped passed most of the analysis on the issue – and that is the real reason – the coup attempt. One of the main forces behind the coup attempt 3 years ago was the…Turkish Air Force. Helicopters bombed police stations and government buildings, and Turkish F-16 enforced a no fly curfew over Ankara and Istanbul. Additionally, senior commanders fom the Air Force were on the front line of the coup attempt. S-400 is best insurance, at least against air force involvement in future coup attempts.
People whom live in democracies take this form of government for granted but Turkey (even though it has election) had 6 coups since the establishment of modern Turkey. The fear Erdogan has from another coup attempt it real, not imagined. In fact it is so real, it is even worth giving up the F-35 and jobs it generates for the country. If it is his survival or losing a few jobs for Turkey, he knows where his priorities are.
The US doesn’t want to sell the F-35 to Turkey and, at least under Erdogan, for good reasons. It needed a way out of the supply and found it. Erdogan himself has imperialistic motives and, more importantly for him, a real fear from another attempted coup. From his point of view getting it is more important than having the best plane in history and thousands of jobs connected to it. Hence Turkey getting the F-35, at least under Erdogan, is doomed to be cancelled. There are too strong forces against it.
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